GDPNow Q3 Forecast Drops to 2.5%, Is the Recession Over? – Mish Talk

Please consider the GDPNow forecast for August 10.

The GDPNow model’s estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.5% on August 10, down from 1.4% on August 4. Following recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast for real growth in personal consumption expenditure in the third quarter, real growth in gross private domestic investment in the third quarter, and growth actual government spending in the third quarter increased from 1.8% to 2.7%, from -0.3% to 0.2% and from 1.4% to 1.7%, respectively, while the nowcast the contribution of the change in real net exports to real GDP growth in the third quarter fell from 0.35 percentage point to 0.30 percentage point.

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