Government bond yields soar as markets weigh on threat of recession

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Bond yields jumped this week after another big rate hike from the Federal Reserve, signaling a warning of market distress.

On Friday, the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.266%, hitting a 15-year high, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit 3.829%, the highest in 11 years.

The surge in yields comes as markets weigh the effects of Fed policy decisions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 600 points into bearish territory, falling to a new low for 2022.

Yield curve inversion, which occurs when short-term government bonds have higher yields than long-term bonds, is an indicator of a possible future recession.

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“Higher bond yields are bad news for the stock market and its investors,” said certified financial planner Paul Winter, owner of Five Seasons Financial Planning in Salt Lake City.

Higher bond yields create more competition for funds that might otherwise enter the stock market, Winter said, and with higher Treasury yields used in the calculation to value stocks, analysts could reduce cash flow. expected future.

Additionally, it may be less attractive for companies to issue bonds for share buybacks, which is a way for profitable companies to return cash to shareholders, Winter said.

Fed hikes contribute ‘somewhat’ to higher bond yields

Market interest rates and bond prices generally move in opposite directions, which means that higher rates cause bond values ​​to fall. There is also an inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, which rise as bond values ​​fall.

The Fed’s rate hikes helped push bond yields up somewhat, Winter said, with the impact varying across the Treasury yield curve.

“The further out of the yield curve you go and the lower credit quality you go, the less Fed rate hikes affect interest rates,” he said.

This is one of the main reasons for the inverted yield curve this year, with 2-year yields rising more dramatically than 10- or 30-year yields, he said.

Review stock and bond allocations

Now is a good time to review your portfolio diversification to see if any changes are needed, such as realigning assets to match your risk tolerance, said Jon Ulin, CFP and CEO of Ulin & Co. Wealth Management. in Boca Raton, Florida.

On the bond side, advisors monitor what is called duration or measure the sensitivity of bonds to changes in interest rates. Expressed in years, the term takes into account the coupon, the term to maturity and the yield paid over the entire term.

Above all, investors need to remain disciplined and patient, as always, but especially if they believe rates will continue to rise.

Paul Winter

owner of Five Seasons Financial Planning

While clients favor higher bond yields, Ulin suggests keeping durations short and minimizing exposure to long bonds as rates rise.

“Duration risk can eat away at your savings over the next year, regardless of sector or credit quality,” he said.

Winter suggests steering stock allocations toward “value and quality,” typically trading for less than asset value, relative to growth stocks likely to provide above-average returns. Often, value investors look for undervalued companies that are expected to appreciate over time.

“Above all, investors need to remain disciplined and patient, as always, but especially if they believe rates will continue to rise,” he added.

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