What happened on Tuesday | interest.co.nz

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you’re already working from home, before shutting down your laptop).

Nothing to report here today – so far at least.

Nothing to report here either.

However you break down the data released today, retail sales fall. They fell in July compared to June, and they fell in July compared to the same month a year ago. Core retail activity also declined. There were two categories that grew – gasoline sales and sales of “consumables” like groceries. All of this data is problematic because it is not adjusted for inflation, so retail volumes are clearly falling quite hard. July’s declines were larger than expected and show that household spending momentum is waning.

ANZ said our economy will probably avoid recession, but that’s only because exports will save us. But from a domestic perspective, they expect a contraction in the first half of 2023. They note that payrolls are up more than +7%, which will help.

ANZ’s Truckometer traffic monitoring business is struggling this winter. “Light traffic” (cars, etc.) is down in July, but still up year-on-year. But “heavy traffic” (trucks etc.) is now below levels of a year ago and indicates low movement of goods. (*= Contrast with public transport use is the start. People are still using their cars at normal levels, but if Auckland is Reports AT Patronage

are a guide to national trends, they have abandoned this alternative. July alone will end up being -30% below year-ago levels, less than half of pre-pandemic levels.)
STAYING IN ORANGE The government has announcement

that New Zealand will remain at the amber light, while hospitalizations remain high and the pressure on the health system continues through the winter.

the average New Zealand home value is down -$74,000 since the start of the year, with values ​​in Auckland down -$131,000. Average home values ​​are falling across New Zealand, with values ​​in Wellington, Palmerston North and Dunedin having the largest percentage falls. Queenstown is the only urban area that has not seen a fall in the past three months.
COMPANIES CAN SEE SOME LIGHT, CONSUMERS CAN’T In Australia, the Westpac-MI Consumer Confidence Survey saw a decline in sentiment – ​​not huge from June, but it was the ninth consecutive monthly decline they have recorded. Consumers may be down, but business sentiment actually improved in July, according to the widely followedNAB Survey

. This is an unusual and unexpected rally in the face of headwinds from inflation and rising interest rates, as well as a deteriorating global economic outlook.
STRONG #2 And staying in Australia, the banking giant NAB reported

A$1.85 billion profit in their April-June quarter (Q3 for them), +6% earnings growth. In this ASX update, they made no mention of the BNZ contribution – even though the result was also posted on the NZX exchange. As usual, they warned of “higher costs,” but of course those risks never seem to materialize as inhibitors to future outcomes. NAB reported statutory net profit of A$7.05 billion in the year to June and from these results it’s clear its housing market isn’t hurting banks – yet . After CBA, NAB is the undisputed number 2 in the Australian banking sector.
LIVE TEST australian central bank said

he is about to start a live trial using their digital money. It must be part of a collaborative research project on how it might be used by consumers and businesses. This will involve the development of a limited-scale pilot that will operate in isolation for a limited period of time and aims to involve a pilot CBDC that is an actual claim on its central bank.

Wholesale swap rates are likely lower today due to international trends, reversing yesterday’s rise. The 90-day bank bill rate gave up all of yesterday’s rise, down -6 basis points to 3.23%. The Australian 10-year bond yield is now at 3.20% and down -4 basis points from the same time yesterday. The Chinese 10-year bond rate is now at 2.76% and up +1 bp. The New Zealand 10-year government bond rate is now at 3.32%, down -11 basis points from the same time yesterday, and still below the RBNZ’s earlier patch for this bond which was down -10 basis points to 3.35%. The 10-year UST is now at 2.76% and down -7 basis points from the same time yesterday.

Lacking momentum, direction and volume, Wall Street closed flat today with the S&P500 down -0.1%. Tokyo started Tuesday’s session down -0.9%. Hong Kong is down -0.6% and Shanghai is trading flat in its first session on Tuesday. If there are positives, they are local. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trading. The NZX50 is up +0.4% late in the session.

At the start of Asian trading, gold is down +US$11 from the same time yesterday, now at US$1,785/oz.

The Kiwi Dollar strengthened today to 62.8 USc from where we were this time yesterday. Against the AUD, we are softer at just under 90 AUc. Against the euro, we are also little changed at 61.6 euro cents. This means that our TWI-5 is now only 71.2.

Bitcoin is now at US$23,779 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%.


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